What Do You Think The S&P 500 2012 Return Will Be

While the new year is finally upon us, and it is bringing out the market predictors in full force. There are bears who are predicting increasing turmoil in Europe and a negative S&P 500 return for the year. Then there are the bulls who are predicting that Europe will be resolved and we will see a run up in the equities markets heading into election year. Here are our scenarios for both sides, it is up to you to decide where you think the markets will finish on the year.

What Do You Think The S&P 500 2012 Return Will Be

The Technical Case For A Bullish S&P 500

The bulls won the first battle of 2012 as the markets gapped up and past its downward resistance level. This is just a small win in the long battle but it should provide more upside to the market in the short term. The price continues to be above the 200 and 50 day moving averages and if it continues to move up you will see the 50 move above the 200 and complete the golden crossover. Look for the previous highs to be tested if this upward trend continues. The biggest battle in 2012 should be in the 1360 area and if that falls look for the economy and the bulls to be in full swing.

What Do You Think The S&P 500 2012 Return Will Be

The Technical Case For A Bearish S&P 500

The bears are off to a slow start in 2012 but the year is far from over. The case for the bears is that the market has yet to make higher highs and lower lows. The market is currently trading in an upward channel, and most of the time this pattern will break down. The key for the bears is how high the market will go before it break. If the market stalls around this area and the upward supports breaks, look for the lows to be once again tested.